Oregon – Red State in ’08!

Woo hoo!

Now that I have your attention, here’s why it might be A Good Thing if Oregon is a red state in December 2008:

Thirty-five years ago, there was no set system used by television stations in coloring the states to illustrate whether their electoral votes would be Democratic or Republican. Different networks used different colors, and there was debate over whether the colors allocated influenced the voters. Blue was alleged to be the most favorable color – “true blue Americans” being generally considered more highly than “rednecks” or even the “red menace of communism”, “yellow cowards” and so on. In 1976, TV networks agreed to a formula to avoid favoritism. Gerald Ford and the Republicans, the incumbents in that election, were blue. Every four years, the incumbent party would switch from being red to being blue regardless of whether the presidential incumbent is a Democrat or Republican.

In 1992, Democrat Clinton was the challenger, and his states were red. In 1996, Democrat Clinton was the incumbent, and his states were colored red then, too. In 2000, Republican Bush was the challenger (Democrats were the incumbent party), and his states were colored red. In 2004, Bush was the incumbent, colored red.

Summary:
1976: Incumbent(R): Blue………Challenger(D): Red
1980: Incumbent(D): Red……….Challenger(R): Blue
1984: Incumbent(R): Blue………Challenger(D): Red
1988: Incumbent(R): Red……….Challenger(D): Blue
1992: Incumbent(R): Blue………Challenger(D): Red
1996: Incumbent(D): Red……….Challenger(R): Blue
2000: Incumbent(D): Blue………Challenger(R): Red
2004: Incumbent(R): Red……….Challenger(D): Blue

Which means, in 2008, if the media sticks to the agreed-upon system that has been used for the last 30 years “(which they won’t because the media sucks)” [editorial comment by my younger son*, who researched this post for me] the incumbent party (Republicans) will be blue and the Democrats red once more.

I did my master’s thesis on colour preferences (with a “u”, because it was in England). The Aesthetics of Colour (that “Jones, A.L.” is me, although all the “Jones, A.L.”s linked from there are other people). This and other studies have shown a general liking of blue better than red (gross simplification – it also depends on the intensity of color and the amount of black/white mixed in, as well as the hue). I chose the colors both for this web site and for my campaign based on that research – perhaps the only time it has been put to practical use.

Since people do tend to prefer blue over red, I believe it would be good for the Democratic party if the networks scrap their previous protocol, based on the fact that red states being Republican and blue ones Democratic is now firmly entrenched in public perception.

But think about it: wouldn’t it be good for us, to help counter stereotyping and to emphasize that we’re all Americans in the end, if the red states and blue states kept switching based on incumbency, rather than staying along party lines?

* following up from a lecture at Princeton University. Although my son’s initial e-mail joked “If a college professor says it, it has to be true”, neither one of us was ready to accept that without due diligence in fact-checking.

References:
Washington Monthly blog
Wikipedia (not entirely correct)
OneGoodMove blog

RED, BLUE, or PURPLE?